Jim Cramer says next week’s economic data will drive the markets

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said a light earnings calendar next week will concentrate investors’ focus on a handful of key reports and economic data releases.

Stocks rebounded Thursday as investors shook off the previous session’s sell-off following the Federal Reserve’s indication that another rate hike remains possible. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 72 points, or .14%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 gained nearly 2% and about 1%, respectively. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, extending the market’s AI-driven rally and helping lift the major averages.

Cramer then turned to the week ahead.

Cramer said one of the biggest stories to watch is oil after crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have picked up and the U.S. Navy ended its blockade. If peace negotiations with Iran continue to progress, he expects “shockingly lower oil prices because of this new excess.”

A sustained decline in oil prices, he noted, would ease inflationary pressures and eventually support lower interest rates.

Carnival reports before the bell, which Cramer said will offer investors a look at how the Iran war affected travel — and what the recent pullback in fuel could mean for demand. While Cramer prefers Viking Holdings because of its upscale customer base and pricing power, he said Carnival is also a well-run operator.

After the close, FedEx, which is a holding in Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club, reports. Cramer recently visited the company’s Memphis headquarters and remains bullish on CEO Raj Subramaniam’s network optimization and cost-cutting strategy. The company has a history of issuing conservative forecasts, he noted, meaning any post-earnings weakness could present a buying opportunity.

Homebuilder KB Home also reports. Cramer said he hopes management addresses the impact of elevated interest rates on housing demand.

“The housing industry just feels like it is dead in the water right now,” he said.

New-home sales data will offer another read on the struggling housing market, which Cramer thinks deserves far more attention from central bankers. “It’s anybody’s guess what this number will be,” Cramer said.

Casey’s General Stores also hosts an analyst day. While such events don’t always move stocks, Cramer said he thinks investors continue to underestimate the power of the convenience store operator’s small-town business model.

After the close, Micron Technology reports. Cramer called it the “most consequential quarter of the week” and said expectations are extraordinarily high after the memory chipmaker’s massive run this year. He said Micron must significantly exceed expectations and raise guidance to keep the rally going.

The personal consumption expenditures price index report, which has been the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, arrives Thursday morning. Cramer said he was encouraged by Warsh’s comments after his first meeting as Fed chairman that suggested the Fed may rely less on backward-looking inflation data like the PCE in the future.

Restaurant giant Darden Restaurants also reports. Cramer said the company, which owns Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, has a long history of surprising investors to the upside and likes the stock heading into the quarter because falling gas prices are a tailwind to consumer spending going forward.

FedEx Freight, which recently was spun out of FedEx, will hold a business update call. He said the less-than-truckload shipping company is well-positioned to benefit from growing e-commerce demand, cost reductions and eventually self-driving truck technology.